Input parameters | Mean | Standard error | Distribution | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|

Transition probability parameters | ||||

Genotype 1 | ||||

chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 1-10 | 0.0057 | 0.0057 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 11-20 | 0.0143 | 0.0141 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 21-30 | 0.0207 | 0.0203 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to HCC year 1-10 | 0.0007 | 0.0007 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to HCC year 11-20 | 0.0032 | 0.0032 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to HCC year 21-30 | 0.0063 | 0.0062 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to death | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | Beta | [25] |

compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year1-3 | 0.0417 | 0.0400 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 4-5 | 0.0945 | 0.0855 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 6-10 | 0.0662 | 0.0618 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 1-3 | 0.0135 | 0.0133 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 4-5 | 0.0356 | 0.0344 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 6-10 | 0.0297 | 0.0288 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to death year 1-3 | 0.0135 | 0.0133 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to death year 4-5 | 0.0461 | 0.0439 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to death year 6-10 | 0.0461 | 0.0439 | Beta | [26] |

decompensated cirrhosis to HCC | 0.0681 | 0.0635 | Beta | [27] |

decompensated cirrhosis to death year 1 | 0.2600 | 0.1924 | Beta | [24] |

decompensated cirrhosis to death year 2 | 0.3900 | 0.2379 | Beta | [24] |

decompensated cirrhosis to death year 3-5 | 0.2394 | 0.1821 | Beta | [24] |

HCC to death year 1 | 0.8482 | 0.0011 | Beta | [28] |

HCC to death year 2 | 0.9201 | 0.0009 | Beta | [28] |

Genotype 6 | ||||

chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 1-10 | 0.0057 | 0.0057 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 11-20 | 0.0143 | 0.0141 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 21-30 | 0.0207 | 0.0203 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to HCC year 1-10 | 0.0007 | 0.0007 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to HCC year 11-20 | 0.0032 | 0.0032 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to HCC year 21-30 | 0.0063 | 0.0062 | Beta | [24] |

chronic HCV to death | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | Beta | [25] |

compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 1-3 | 0.0417 | 0.0400 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 4-5 | 0.0945 | 0.0855 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 6-10 | 0.0662 | 0.0618 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 1-3 | 0.0135 | 0.0133 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 4-5 | 0.0356 | 0.0344 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 6-10 | 0.0297 | 0.0288 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to death year 1-3 | 0.0135 | 0.0133 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to death year 4-5 | 0.0461 | 0.0439 | Beta | [26] |

compensated cirrhosis to death year 6-10 | 0.0461 | 0.0439 | Beta | [26] |

decompensated cirrhosis to HCC | 0.0681 | 0.0635 | Beta | [27] |

decompensated cirrhosis to death year 1 | 0.2600 | 0.1924 | Beta | [24] |

decompensated cirrhosis to death year 2 | 0.3900 | 0.2379 | Beta | [24] |

decompensated cirrhosis to death year 3-5 | 0.2394 | 0.1821 | Beta | [24] |

HCC to death year 1 | 0.8482 | 0.0011 | Beta | [28] |

HCC to death year 2 | 0.9201 | 0.0009 | Beta | [28] |

Virological responses | ||||

Genotype 1 | ||||

Pegylated interferon alpha 2b and Ribavirin | ||||

Probability of SVR | 0.2720 | 0.0057 | Beta | [29–31] |

Probability of RVR | 0.1302 | 0.0033 | Beta | [29–31] |

Probability to change from RVR to SVR | 0.8620 | 0.1190 | Beta | [29] |

Probability of NR | 0.2449 | 0.0055 | Beta | [29, 31] |

Pegylated interferon alpha 2a and Ribavirin | ||||

RR of SVR (peg 2a vs peg 2b) | 1.1950 | 0.0492 | Log normal | calculated |

RR of RVR (peg 2a vs peg 2b) | 1.1300 | 0.0353 | Log normal | calculated |

RR of NR (peg 2a vs peg 2b) | 0.6960 | 0.1134 | Log normal | calculated |

Genotype 6 | ||||

RR of SVR (gen 6 vs gen 1) | 1.2200 | Log normal | [32] | |

RR of RVR (gen 6 vs gen 1) | 1.6800 | Log normal | [32] | |

Health utility | ||||

Chronic hepatitis C infection | 0.7284 | 0.0011 | Beta | [13] |

Compensated cirrhosis | 0.7023 | 0.0020 | Beta | [13] |

Decompensated cirrhosis | 0.5774 | 0.0020 | Beta | [13] |

Hepatocellular carcinoma | 0.5778 | 0.0023 | Beta | [13] |

SVR (Healthy) | 0.7955 | 0.0018 | Beta | [13] |