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Table 1 Input parameters used in the model

From: Economic evaluation of pegylated interferon plus ribavirin for treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Thailand: genotype 1 and 6

Input parameters

Mean

Standard error

Distribution

Ref.

Transition probability parameters

 Genotype 1

  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 1-10

0.0057

0.0057

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 11-20

0.0143

0.0141

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 21-30

0.0207

0.0203

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to HCC year 1-10

0.0007

0.0007

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to HCC year 11-20

0.0032

0.0032

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to HCC year 21-30

0.0063

0.0062

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to death

0.0070

0.0070

Beta

[25]

  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year1-3

0.0417

0.0400

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 4-5

0.0945

0.0855

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 6-10

0.0662

0.0618

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 1-3

0.0135

0.0133

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 4-5

0.0356

0.0344

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 6-10

0.0297

0.0288

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to death year 1-3

0.0135

0.0133

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to death year 4-5

0.0461

0.0439

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to death year 6-10

0.0461

0.0439

Beta

[26]

  decompensated cirrhosis to HCC

0.0681

0.0635

Beta

[27]

  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 1

0.2600

0.1924

Beta

[24]

  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 2

0.3900

0.2379

Beta

[24]

  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 3-5

0.2394

0.1821

Beta

[24]

  HCC to death year 1

0.8482

0.0011

Beta

[28]

  HCC to death year 2

0.9201

0.0009

Beta

[28]

 Genotype 6

  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 1-10

0.0057

0.0057

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 11-20

0.0143

0.0141

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 21-30

0.0207

0.0203

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to HCC year 1-10

0.0007

0.0007

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to HCC year 11-20

0.0032

0.0032

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to HCC year 21-30

0.0063

0.0062

Beta

[24]

  chronic HCV to death

0.0070

0.0070

Beta

[25]

  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 1-3

0.0417

0.0400

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 4-5

0.0945

0.0855

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 6-10

0.0662

0.0618

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 1-3

0.0135

0.0133

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 4-5

0.0356

0.0344

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 6-10

0.0297

0.0288

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to death year 1-3

0.0135

0.0133

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to death year 4-5

0.0461

0.0439

Beta

[26]

  compensated cirrhosis to death year 6-10

0.0461

0.0439

Beta

[26]

  decompensated cirrhosis to HCC

0.0681

0.0635

Beta

[27]

  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 1

0.2600

0.1924

Beta

[24]

  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 2

0.3900

0.2379

Beta

[24]

  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 3-5

0.2394

0.1821

Beta

[24]

  HCC to death year 1

0.8482

0.0011

Beta

[28]

  HCC to death year 2

0.9201

0.0009

Beta

[28]

  Virological responses

 Genotype 1

  Pegylated interferon alpha 2b and Ribavirin

    

  Probability of SVR

0.2720

0.0057

Beta

[2931]

  Probability of RVR

0.1302

0.0033

Beta

[2931]

  Probability to change from RVR to SVR

0.8620

0.1190

Beta

[29]

  Probability of NR

0.2449

0.0055

Beta

[29, 31]

 Pegylated interferon alpha 2a and Ribavirin

    

  RR of SVR (peg 2a vs peg 2b)

1.1950

0.0492

Log normal

calculated

  RR of RVR (peg 2a vs peg 2b)

1.1300

0.0353

Log normal

calculated

  RR of NR (peg 2a vs peg 2b)

0.6960

0.1134

Log normal

calculated

 Genotype 6

  RR of SVR (gen 6 vs gen 1)

1.2200

 

Log normal

[32]

  RR of RVR (gen 6 vs gen 1)

1.6800

 

Log normal

[32]

 Health utility

  Chronic hepatitis C infection

0.7284

0.0011

Beta

[13]

  Compensated cirrhosis

0.7023

0.0020

Beta

[13]

  Decompensated cirrhosis

0.5774

0.0020

Beta

[13]

  Hepatocellular carcinoma

0.5778

0.0023

Beta

[13]

  SVR (Healthy)

0.7955

0.0018

Beta

[13]