Table 7 Projected clinical outcomes and costs of the scenarios projected over 1 year and 5 years

Total number of cirrhotics entered into specialist services (out of all cirrhotics)

1.03 (34%)

5.28 (32%)

2.19 (74%)

10.97 (66%)

2.23 (75%)

11.17 (68%)

2.34 (79%)

11.75 (71%)

2.43 (82%)

12.23 (74%)

Total number of cirrhotics not known to specialist services (out of all cirrhotics)

1.96 (66%)

11.278 (68%)

0.78 (26%)

5.53 (34%)

0.74 (25%)

5.41 (32%)

0.63 (21%)

4.73 (29%)

0.54 (18%)

4.24 (26%)

Early stage complication (stage 0/A HCC, non-bleeding varices, mild ascites etc)

(% of all complications)

Cost

0.22 (42%) £3.0 K

3.52 (39%) £31.1 K

0.31 (57%) £4.1 K

4.62 (52%) £41.2 K

0.31 (58%) £4.1 K

4.66 (52%) £41.5 K

0.32 (60%) £4.3 K

4.77 (54%) £42.6 K

0.33 (61%) £4.3 K

4.87 (55%) £43.4 K

Late stage complication (stage B-D HCC, bleeding varices, severe ascites etc)

(% of all complications)

Cost

0.32 (58%) £12.9 K

5.44 (61%) £141 K

0.23 (43%) £9.2 K

4.3 (48%) £108 K

0.23 (42%) 9.1 K

4.26 (48%) £107 K

0.22 (40%) £8.8 K

4.14 (46%) £103 K

0.21 (39%) £8.4 K

4.05 (45%) £101 K

Liver transplant

Cost

0.07 £5.9 K

1.05 £89.5 K

0.10 £7.9 K

1.16 £98.9 K

0.10 £8.0 K

1.16 £99.3 K

0.10 £8.2 K

1.17100.2 K

0.10 £8.3 K

1.18 £101 K

Mortality (%)

9.87 0.99%

28.56 2.86%

9.84 0.98%

28.18 2.82%

9.83 0.98%

28.17 2.82%

9.83 0.98%

28.13 2.81%

9.83 0.98%

28.10 2.81%

Total cost/1000 NAFLD patients

638 K

1.1 M

502 K

946 K

522 K

971 K

570 K

1.0 M

647 K

1.1 M

Cost/advanced fibrotic detected

25.7 K

49.9 K

9.0 K

19.4 K

9.1 K

19.4 K

9.5 K

19.5 K

10.4 K

20.5 K