Table 2 diagnostic test probabilities for moderate fibrosis (F ≧ 3) and cirrhosis (F ≧ 5) using multiple thresholds for ELF, APRI and AST:ALT ratio
Aetiology | Stage | Threshold | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | LR + | LR − | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cohort-A | F ≧ 3 | ELF | 8.3 | 97 (89–100) | 28 (10–53) | 82 (78–86) | 71 (35–92) | 1.34 (1.00–1.79) | 0.11 (0.02–0.54) |
9.8 | 88 (77–95) | 83 (59–96) | 95 (86–98) | 68 (51–82) | 5.33 (1.89–15.04) | 0.13 (0.06–0.28) | |||
APRI | < / = 0.5 | 80 (65–91) | 45 (17–77) | 85 (76–91) | 38 (20–61) | 1.48 (0.84–2.58) | 0.43 (0.17–1.05) | ||
> 1.5 | 39 (24–56) | 73 (39–94) | 84 (65–94) | 24 (17–33) | 1.43 (0.51–4.04) | 0.84 (0.54–1.30) | |||
F ≧ 5 | ELF | 9.8 | 91 (80–97) | 63 (42–81) | 83 (75–89) | 77 (58–89) | 2.45 (1.49–4.04) | 0.15 (0.06–0.36) | |
10.5 | 85 (73–93) | 89 (71–98) | 94 (84–98) | 75 (61–85) | 7.67 (2.62–22.41) | 0.17 (0.09–0.32) | |||
11.3 | 67 (53–79) | 93 (76–99) | 95 (82–99) | 58 (48–67) | 9.00 (2.34–34.61) | 0.36 (0.24–0.53) | |||
APRI | < / = 1 | 59 (42–75) | 80 (52–96) | 88 (72–95) | 44 (33–56) | 2.97 (1.04–8.47) | 0.51 (0.32–0.81) | ||
> 2 | 35 (20–53) | 87 (60–98) | 87 (62–96) | 35 (28–42) | 2.64 (0.67–10.29) | 0.75 (0.55–1.02) | |||
AST:ALT ratio | > 1 | 86 (71–95) | 50 (23–77) | 82 (72–88) | 58 (35–79) | 1.72 (1.00–2.96) | 0.28 (0.11–0.73) | ||
Cohort-NA | F ≧ 3 | ELF | 8.3 | 78 (72–82) | 63 (58–67) | 59 (56–62) | 80 (76–83) | 2.08 (1.81–2.39) | 0.36 (0.29–0.45) |
9.8 | 38 (32–44) | 95 (93–97) | 85 (78–90) | 68 (67–71) | 8.26 (5.19–13.13) | 0.65 (0.60–0.72) | |||
APRI | < / = 0.5 | 62 (55–68) | 71 (66–76) | 62 (57–66) | 71 (67–74) | 2.12 (1.74–2.58) | 0.54 (0.45–0.64) | ||
> 1.5 | 22 (17–28) | 94 (91–97) | 75 (64–83) | 62 (60–63) | 3.96 (2.39–6.57) | 0.82 (0.76–0.88) | |||
F ≧ 5 | ELF | 9.8 | 60 (50–68) | 91 (88–93) | 59 (51–66) | 91 (89–92) | 6.50 (4.85–8.73) | 0.45 (0.36–0.55) | |
10.5 | 37 (29–46) | 94 (92–96) | 59 (49–69) | 87 (86–89) | 6.75 (4.50–10.13) | 0.66 (0.58–0.76) | |||
11.3 | 24 (17–32) | 98 (97–99) | 75 (60–87) | 86 (84–86) | 13.79 (6.72–26.84) | 0.78 (0.71–0.86) | |||
APRI | < / = 1 | 49 (39–59) | 86 (82–89) | 47 (39–54) | 87 (85–89) | 3.52 (2.61–4.74) | 0.59 (0.49–0.71) | ||
> 2 | 25 (17–34) | 95 (93–97) | 56 (43–69) | 84 (82–85) | 5.22 (3.07–8.88) | 0.79 (0.71–0.88) | |||
AST:ALT ratio | > 1 | 32 (23–41) | 87 (83–90) | 37 (29–46) | 84 (82–86) | 2.43 (1.68–3.50) | 0.78 (0.68–0.90) | ||